Facebook will be less popular in five years

I'm going to stick my neck out here and predict that within five years Facebook will not be as popular in five years time, in fact it may well shrivel to one quarter it's current size in terms of the number of active user accounts. I'm not expecting a law suit for this, it's only my opinion here so don't quote me! But don't be surprised either when these things come to pass. Okay, so 100 million accounts, not quite the end you might say, but in terms of social networking dominance it might as well be. Incidentally, many Facebook users have multiple accounts anyway so the real number of actual “people accounts” may be significantly less than the propaganda may have you believe.

I've never been a fan of Facebook and quite a few of my friends who are avid users would no doubt be groaning as they read this, but there it is. Have you noticed that Facebook's attitude to the world is a bit different to that of other large tech companies? If you're an average dumb user then probably not. Let's hope you're not and you're awake enough to realise who the big players are and what is going on.

In the news recently Facebook and Google were having a little spat. This isn't exactly news in itself, it happens all the time in technology circles but there's a cumulative effect. Whilst Google's record hasn't been spotless (re: the street-view thing and the privacy issue when buzz was launched), Facebook's moral standing is questionable at best in my opinion. Privacy issues have frequently plagued the site and the slow uptake of the much desired 'panic' button was another issue. Then there's the various social issues: relationship breakups, stalking, scams, grooming... you name it. Don't get me wrong, other social networks and indeed other websites have the same problems. I think it goes with the territory. My opinion and prediction regarding Facebook stems from what I have read and what I have perceived. Everyone has a gut feeling, you know instinctively how long the roller coaster ride is going to last and it always comes to a stop eventually. People are fickle and you can’t guarantee their loyalty when it comes to the web.

People have also been saying, "Will Facebook be bigger than Google" or will "Facebook be bigger than Microsoft". Well in the first instance you're comparing apples with oranges. People go to Facebook to connect with friends, they go to Google to find out things. As far as I'm aware Facebook is not providing that kind of service (yet) and Google aren't providing a viable friend connection site (yet).

Whilst I was thinking about writing this, I did a little searching around to try and gauge how loyal people were to Facebook. Well speaking to various friends and family, they’re pretty loyal but I also found no shortage of "Hate Facebook" type sites out there. There's a list of celebrities who have publicly boycotted Facebook and people who have declared themselves Facebook free. There are even some Facebook groups dedicated to leaving Facebook, boycotting Facebook etc. What?? Now that is just plain weird in my opinion. It’s kind of a bit like being a vegetarian and selling burgers to promote vegetarianism!

'So what' you might think, people often hold a grudge about things they don't like and no one really cares, it's business as usual. Well that may be true, but from what I have read (again, this may be hogwash) Facebook’s CO-creator (hope I got that right) does indeed care and DOES want to be a popular guy. Talking of popularity, I've always been of the opinion that Facebook is a popularity contest first and a true social network as an after thought. Oh - how the gloves are off now eh? My opinion of course...

One thing that you should remember when thinking about Facebook, Apple, Twitter, Bing, Wikipedia, eBay, Amazon, Google, Myspace etc. They are all just websites and they exist because the population of the Internet have made them what they are. As I have mentioned before, people are fickle and prone to changing their minds, so what is popular now may not be in 5 years time. There's a new generation teenagers using Facebook much in the same way that today’s twenty-somethings will remember having used MySpace. In a few years time another a new group of teens will perhaps have different ideas about how to use some new technology (mobile) and/or website that hasn't even come to the surface yet.

In a nutshell you can't rely on staying number one for ever. These large organisations try to re-invent themselves and keep up with the times but they're struggling against a wind of change and unless they're really lucky, they won't last in their current form. I say current form because look at how Apple has adapted and hung in there despite all the odds. Microsoft too has done well to survive, but their days of dominance in the browser market are numbered with the relentless decline in the use of Internet Explorer.

Why five years from now? It's a number and it's my gut feeling that’s all. All this change and competition is good though, it's good for ordinary people who just want to use stuff - ideally for free. Nobody saw Google coming and nobody imagined Facebook's success, but when something big comes along, the others struggle to keep up and have to live life in the shadows for a while. Mark my words, the same will happen again with Facebook - one day.

I'm not using Facebook now and I probably won't tomorrow but I might be tempted to try whatever comes up next. So please add me as a friend :-)

Facebook will be less popular in five years

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